Boeing’s CEO Dennis Muilenburg is a Trump supporter. When two 737 Max aircraft crashed due to production errors, Mr. Trump told Muilenburg to change the name of the planes and keep selling them. But after Boeing’s missile launch was a fail, Boeing’s board decided Dennis had to go even though he is a Trump donor and ass-kisser. The board also knew 737 Max production had to stop until Boeing got its manufacturing act together.
Wall Street economists think Jerome Powell and Federal Reserve members have their hands full trying to keep the repo reserve market flush in cash. Three months ago the repo market had a lack of cash attack. The Feds had to inject cash in that market to get the interest rate banks pay to borrow from each other under control. Economists claim the amount of cash in that market dropped 18 percent this year.
In order to stabilize the repo market, the Feds continue to inject cash into the market. Plus, the group buys $60 billion in treasury notes every month. The repo market’s interest rate is back in the 1.5 to 1.75 percent arena, but economists think that could change in 2020.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell claims Gross Domestic Product growth will be 2.0 percent at the end of 2019. That’s not the real number, and neither is the 3.5 unemployment figure. But they are the numbers Trump wants the Commerce Department to report. Most economists say economic growth is below two percent and that growth number won’t change in 2020. The feds did say GDP growth will drop below two percent in 2021.
Trump’s tariff war hurt business investment, but consumer spending is still a bright spot even though consumer confidence is not that great. Consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of GDP growth. Some economists think consumers will stop spending in 2020 unless Trump stops tariff-screwing the world. An economic downturn is the flavor of the day in Europe, and the U.S. is ripe for the same sort of economic collapse.
Factory orders in the U.S. continue to shrink. Durable goods orders shrank by two percent over the last six months. And transportation orders slipped during the same period. Commercial aircraft orders took a major hit thanks to the Boeing debacle. Plus, defense aircraft orders are in the toilet.
The budget deficit hit $1 trillion this year. Trump’s tax cut will continue to add $1 trillion a year to the national debt. Mr. Trump and the Feds claim the economy is in good shape, but there’s an economic storm brewing around the world and it may hit the U.S. sooner than later.