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Wait – How Many Economists Feel That a Recession Will Come in the Next Two Years?

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The National Association for Business Economics is the go-to authority for all things related to professional business economists. Don’t know what a business economist is? It’s OK if you don’t; the term is kind of confusing.

A business economist is a type of economist that specializes in providing their math-heavy insights to businesses to help them make sound decisions. For example, they might provide businesses with lists of complements and substitutes or evaluate a grocery store’s recent performance in using pairs of complements set near one another in that store.

The National Association for Business Economics (NABE) recently conducted a poll that asked tens of true business economists – they deal with the economics side of business, rather than the executory side – across the United States about the next recession.

Of course, nobody knows when a recession will come, but the United States economy is due the course for an economic downturn within the next three years.

The NABE’s poll asked the economists if they felt a recession would rear its ugly head at the end of 2020, which happens to be around the next United States presidential election.

You might not believe these results, but then again, you’re not a professional economist with decades’ upon decades’ worth of experience

Of the 51 forecasters the NABE polled just last week, 10 percent said they felt a true economic recession would start sometime next year – in 2019 – whereas a whopping 56 percent of the polled economists shared that a recession would start at some point during 2020.

What’s the reasoning behind these economists’ views?

Did you guess “trade war”? If so, you’re correct!

Current United States President Donald J. Trump has single-handedly kicked off a full-fledged trade war with China, not to mention cut down on the level of trade from all other countries thanks to import taxes that international exporters of goods have been required to pay.

After the research director of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, David Altig, read the results of the NABE poll, he stated that “trade issues are clearly influencing panelists’ views.”

David Wessel, a fellow at The Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy, shared that the stock market could soon become affected by trade policy. If a small group of big-time investors come together and decided that trade policy is stifling business and pull their investments out of the stock market, a recession could effectively be kicked into action – and that’s not good.

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